Covering the Bases: Game 133

Notes and quotes from Thursday’s 5–3 win over the Twins…

FIRST: Jose Ramirez strutted to the plate in the first inning on Thursday afternoon, found his footing in the batter’s box and began to shift into his stance. Then, the Indians third baseman looked up and scanned the field.

Ramirez stopped moving. His left hand was frozen in place — stuck halfway between either adjusting his helmet or gripping his bat. The Twins’ defensive alignment locked him up. Ramirez’s jaw dropped. His eyes squinted. He looked left. He looked right. He looked at the dugout, and then at the field again.

For the first time, Ramirez encountered a four-man outfield.

“We talked about it before the series,” Twins manager Paul Molitor told reporters. “If we get in the right situation, give it a shot. We’re just trying to gather what players will do with it or if they’ll take advantage of the bunt, those types of things.

“You could tell by his expression, he had to take it all in for a second and figure out what he wanted to do. Bluff a bunt? I’m not sure if he wanted to.”

The shift is nothing new for Ramirez. Per Statcast, he had faced 192 shifts this season (47.8% of his plate appearances) when batting from the left side. That’s up from 20 total (4.9%) in 2017 and four (0.9%) in ’16. There were no recorded shifts against Ramirez in 2015, which was Statcast’s first year.

What the Twins did, however, was new. With two outs and no runners aboard in the first, third baseman Miguel Sano moved to the right of second base, second baseman Logan Forsythe moved a couple steps to his left and shortstop Ehire Adrianza jogged out to left field.

Left fielder Eddie Rosario and center fielder Jake Cave moved to the gaps, while right fielder Max Kepler positioned himself just in front of the warning track, but close to the line.

Here is what it looked like:

This wasn’t new for the Twins by any means.

Heading into Thursday’s game, Minnesota led baseball with 135 fourth-outfielder alignments this season. The Astros were second with 29. The Twins has previously done this against Matt Olson, Lucas Duda, Khris Davis, Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson, Eric Thames and Kyle Seager. Duda has actually seen an MLB-high 55 four-man outfield shifts this year.

Why Ramirez? Let’s take a walk through some images and data.

First, it’s worth noting that Ramirez entered Thursday with a 51.2% pull rate (per Fangraphs), marking the highest percentage among qualified MLB hitters. From the left side, particularly, Ramirez has become increasingly pull-oriented, which has played a big role in his power spike this year.

Here is a look at a heatmap of all the balls in play by Ramirez while batting left-handed this season:

Next, here’s a look at all of Ramirez’s outs vs. hits as a left-handed batter:

Those outs explain the pull shift by the infield. That dark red spot in deep right makes it clear why the Twins had Kepler move to the right-field corner, where Ramirez likes to pepper the wall for doubles or clear it for homers.

Now, let’s narrow the focus to the air balls (fly balls, line drive and pop-ups) produced this season by Ramirez as a lefty hitter:

Boy, that four-man outfield alignment is sure making a lot of sense now.

The risk here for the Twins, of course, is that Ramirez is not your typical pull-happy slugger. Ramirez has one of the best contact rates in the league (88.2%) and he is also one of baseball’s elite baserunners (9.0 BsR). A bunt up the third-base line by Ramirez could lead to more than a mere single.

“If teams do that, Josey’s going to bunt a double,” Indians manager Terry Francona said. “Josey’ll end up on second one way or another. I don’t think teams will [do that too often against him]. Josey is the one guy [that’s] actually a pretty good bunter.

“He has also, half his hits are extra-base hits. But, he can run, so if he bunts, I think it’s win-win.”

That explains why Ramirez showed bunt on the first pitch, but yanked the bat back when Twins starter Jake Odorizzi sent a pitch far inside.

“The first pitch, I was thinking about bunting,” Ramirez said through team translator Will Clements. “But then he threw me a ball and I could tell that he wasn’t going to be trying to pitch me away, so I wouldn’t be able to put one down the third-base line.

“So, at that time, that’s when I kind of switched back to my original approach of looking for a pitch, a fastball, that I can drive and that I could pull. So, that’s what I did.”

Odorizzi followed with a heater over the heart of the plate and Ramirez pulled it 105.5 mph into the right-field corner — right into that big red spot on the heatmap. Kepler made a running grab for an easy third out.

“He was guessing it was going to be a fastball,” Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis said. “So, he was going to take a rip at it, because obviously you want a guy like that who can do damage to be swinging most of the time. And, if it was a foul ball or anything, or it just didn’t happen, I think he was then going to try to bunt or hit it that way.”

Ramirez said he was hoping that ball got by Kepler so he could sprint around second and beat Sano to third for a triple. Instead, the four-man outfield paid off for Minnesota.

“The pitcher was safe, but only by a little bit,” Ramirez said.

Francona felt the Twins’ approach was a sign of respect for the type of hitter Ramirez has become for the Tribe.

“I remember Joe Maddon doing it with [David] Ortiz,” Francona said. “It shows you the impact Josey is having against the league.”

SECOND: Shifting has become a normal part of baseball, so it is rare these days to see a hitter flinch the way Ramirez did in the first. Making a hitter think about altering his approach is part of the strategy, though.

A ball in the seats is worth more than a bunt up the line. So, if Ramirez takes the bat out of his own hands, maybe that’s a win for the opposition, even if he wins the battle. Even in a regular shift scenario, if a batter is trying to aim for a hole, it can mess with their effectiveness.

“It’s not what we work on,” Kipnis said. “We work on our swings and driving the ball. You don’t work on just kind of floating a little ground ball to the left side. Even then, you might get a fastball in or offspeed pitch that they want you to pull.

“Pitchers are trying to pitch into the shift as well, so you add that to the difficulty level.”

That is why it is a satisfying moment for a hitter when he successful beats a shift. An example of that arrived in the sixth inning.

After Odorizzi issued back-to-back one-out walks to Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion, Minnesota handed the ball to reliever Alan Busenitz. With Yonder Alonso batting, the Twins moved their infield into a pull shift.

Alonso got an elevated outside fastball and pushed it through the hole on the left side — right where a shortstop would traditionally place himself — for an RBI single.

“That was perfect,” Kipnis said. “It’s hard. You want to aim it, but you don’t want to abandon all your other stuff you’ve got going on.”

Francona loved Alonso’s approach in that at-bat.

“He’s hit a couple balls this last week hard the other way,” said the manager. “I know he’s not going to make a living over there, but man, there’s a lot of hits over there.”

THIRD: One day after a disastrous seventh inning, Cody Allen jogged in from the Indians’ bullpen on Thursday. Cleveland was holding a 5–2 lead and there was already an out in the books.

The Progressive Field crowd — an audience that has witnessed more saves by Allen than any pitcher in club history — welcomed him to the mound with a chorus of boos. The right-hander then started his outing by walking Forsythe on seven pitches.

Then, as Allen worked against Robbie Grossman, the boos dissipated and chants of “CO-DY! CO-DY” began to form inside the ballpark. That shift in support was noticed by Cleveland’s players.

“No one likes to get booed at home,” Kipnis said. “I’ve had it happen. Other guys have had it happen. It’s not the greatest feeling in the world. But, what I did like to see was the crowd actually kind of turned around and actually started kind of willing him on and rooting him on. I loved hearing that. I can’t tell you how much, as an athlete, that helps us more than the boos do.”

Allen retired Grossman with a flyout and then, while Sano was batting, catcher Roberto Perez fired to Alonso at first to get Forsythe in a run-down. It went down as a 2–3–4–1 putout in the scorebook, so it was Allen who applied the tag for the final out. He walked off to cheers.

“That was good,” Kipnis said. “He can, instead of questioning anything or working on anything, he can kind of go home with a little easier mindset and a little smile on his face tonight.”

Allen’s pitch chart looked a little better in this outing:

Was it perfect? Hardly. But he got curveballs down and was not living up in the strike zone like in the past few outings. Francona said pitching coach Carl Willis stayed late Wednesday night poring over video to identify some flaws to fix in the pitcher’s delivery.

“Today is one of those days where I was so proud,” Francona said. “Carl stayed here last night ‘til late, because he wanted to have something for Cody this morning. They got in the video room and went out in the bullpen before the game.

“His breaking balls were low today. It’s because his arm wasn’t having to catch up. I’m not doing a very good job [of explaing it]. Carl will do it better. But, it was a really good step in the right direction.”

HOME: Here are some quick hits to leave you with…

• Tribe starter Mike Clevinger, on Allen: “He needs to keep getting out there and keep throwing. I think the worst thing we can do is just shy away from him, especially with what he know he can do, especially when he gets locked in. Everyone goes through a funk. Everyone goes through weird things. And that’s no different with him. That’s just weird to him, because of how consistent he’s been the past however many years. That’s why it’s so eye-opening to everybody.”
• Clevinger’s line: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 114 pitches. Clevinger ranks third in MLB among qualified pitchers with 102.4 pitchers per start, trailing only Trevor Bauer (108.3) and Max Scherzer (106.1). Said Clevinger: “It means a lot [to have Francona’s trust. I think I said this early, but that’s a hard man to get his trust. He’s been around awhile and really knows the game, so you’ve really got to earn it here. Especially with the staff that’s before me, it’s pretty clear why you have to earn it.”
• Don’t look now, but the Indians’ rotation (18.8) inched past the Astros (18.6) in fWAR. OK, you can look. Cleveland has four pitchers in the Top 12 in MLB: Bauer (3rd with 5.9), Corey Kluber (10th with 4.2), Carlos Carrasco (11th with 4.0) and Clevinger (12th with 3.7).
• Ramirez walked and stole second in the seventh inning, giving him 29 steals on the season. He is now one steal away from becoming the third 30/30 player in Indians history. Only Grady Sizemore (2008) and Joe Carter (1987) previously achieved the feat.
• With two more outs recorded, ageless lefty Oliver Perez now has a 1.11 ERA. Among MLB relievers with at least 20 innings, he trails only Jonny Venters (0.74 ERA in 24.1 IP) and Blake Treinen (0.95 ERA in 66 IP) in relief ERA this season. Perez is currently at 24.1 IP. He could challenge the club record for lowest relief ERA with a minimum of 30 IP. That record belongs to Indians legend Jeff Manship (0.92 ERA in 2015). Behind him is Jose Mesa (1.13 ERA in 1995).
• Edwin Encarnacion went 1-for-3 with an RBI single and is now batting .321 (9-for-28) with three homers and 10 RBIs since coming off the disabled list on Aug. 22.
• Jason Kipnis doubled and homered in the win. No word yet if the Hall of Fame is seeking the Kansas City tourism magazine (he thinks that’s what it was) that he used as a bat on Saturday night to work on his swing. He’s 9-for-15 in the past four games now.

Stay tuned for more…

— JB