What is ailing Ubaldo?

We can all agree that Roy Halladay is a pretty good pitcher, right? OK. Now that we’ve got that out of the way…

In 2004, Halladay was coming off a 22-win, Cy Young season with the Blue Jays. Then, at 27-year-old old, he laid an egg, going 8-8 with a 4.20 ERA in 2005. His season eventually ended with a “dead arm” and people wondering if Doc would ever be the same again.

Well, Halladay’s been just fine since that trying season, going 117-52 with a 2.86 ERA in the years since. Shoot, only a few years ago Halladay had a 10.02 ERA over a four-start stretch that had red flags flying north of the border.

My point is this: even baseball’s best pitchers enduring rough stretches, or even down seasons. Sometimes there are physical explanations, or sometimes it’s a mechanical flaw, or a reduction in velocity, or fading command, or whatever other possibilities exist out there. There are plenty.

Right now, the Indians are trying to figure out what is ailing Ubaldo Jimenez.

Like the good doctor in 2004, Ubaldo is 27 years old, coming off an incredible season (19 wins, 3rd in voting for the NL Cy Young) and only has a handle of solid seasons prior to this one on his resume. The Indians are hoping, praying and begging the baseball gods that Jimenez can have a similar comeback.

Before getting into a pile of Ubaldorithms, it is important to note that the blockbuster trade for Jimenez was not JUST for contending this season. It felt like a “win now” move due to Cleveland’s place in the standings, but this deal was really intended for increasing the chances over 2011-2013.

That said, Ubaldo had a chance to make an immediate impact on the Tribe. He has had an impact, too, just not in the way the Indians had hoped.

To all the Indians fans saying trading for Jimenez was an awful idea, that giving up Alex White and Drew Pomeranz for Ubaldo was a sign of insanity, I’d encourage you to take a step back from the ledge. When in the history of baseball has it been fair to judge a trade after four starts?

White has three big league outings under his belt and is about to make his debut for the Rockies on Tuesday. Pomeranz has zero big league outings to his credit, hasn’t pitched above Double-A and is now likely out for the year after an emergency appendectomy. Who can say whether that duo is the next coming of Curt Schilling-Randy Johnson, or whether they will ultimately flame out? No one knows.

Likewise, there is no way to tell yet whether Jimenez will evolve into the ace Cleveland is envisioning, or whether he will be a bust and set the organization back rather than propel it forward. Time is needed to judge this trade from both sides. So, for now, put the pitchforks and torches down before heading to the ballpark.

It might be far too early to judge this trade, but it’s never too early to look at trends.

Now, I’m not about to look at Jimenez’s four Cleveland starts (1-1, 7.29 ERA, 1.810 WHIP) and jump to all sorts of conclusions. Four starts is too small a sample size. What we can look to are his season as a whole compared to a year ago, or even at his three-year averages to see if there are any patterns.

First off, there is that popular topic of velocity. Jimenez’s pitch speed is down across the board from 2010. It is far to point out that he had early-season injury woes that took some toll, so the average will be down overall as a result. So in this case, let’s look at his Tribe outings.  So far, the velocity averages over four starts have remained down.

In 2010, Jimenez averaged 96.1 on fastballs, 86.6 for sliders, 78.6 for curves and 87.7 for changeups (via fangraphs.com). Overall this year, those numbers have been 93.5, 83.3, 76.7 and 86.3, respectively. In four starts with the Tribe (estimating here based on brooksbaseball.net PitchFX data), his averages have been roughly 93, 83, 78 and 86.

Jimenez and the Indians insist that the pitcher is healthy. Ubaldo even underwent an MRI exam that came back “squeaky clean” (manager Manny Acta’s words) before being traded to Cleveland. A drop in velocity can be common for pitchers as they age, so perhaps Jimenez is dealing with a transitional point in his career.

It is fair to point out that Jimenez has shown the ability to reach back and find something extra so far with the Indians. In Texas, he maxed out at 97.7 mph on his heater. He’s topped 95 mph in each start with Cleveland, too. Jimenez has said that pitch command has been the  biggest issue.

After Sunday’s start in Detroit, Jimenez said the curveball was the primary culprit. On average the breaking pitch had a horizontal break of 3.68 and a vertical break of -3.82. In his first start in Texas (Aug. 5), those numbers on the curve were 7.71/-5.64. In Ubaldo’s no-hitter last year (hey, that’s when a pitcher is at his best, right?), the curve break was 7.02/-6.12. The velo on the curve that day was about the same as it has been up to this point in his time with Cleveland.

Promising numbers can be found in Jimenez’s BB/9 (3.7 in both 2010 & 2011), K/9 (8.7 in ’10 & 8.8 in ’11) and K/BB (2.33 in ’10 & 2.37 in ’11) ratios. The difference has been in the H/9 average. That has climbed to 9.3 from 6.7 a year ago. As a result, Jimenez’s BaBIP has jumped to .325 this year compared to .274 last season.

So, what gives?

 Well, over the past few years, Ubaldo has been throwing fewer first-pitch strikes (56.5% in 2010 and 53.9% in 2011) and missing fewer bats. His swinging-strike percentage has steadily decreased from 9.6 to 9.1 to 7.7 in each of the past three seasons. Predictably, hitters’ contact percentage against him has climbed from 77.3 to 78.2 to 81.6 over the past three years.

If you throw fewer first-pitch strikes, you’re going to fall behind in the count more often. As a result, a pitcher can’t expand the zone as  much, needs to throw over the plate and now the hitters have the upper hand. Ubaldo has thrown 45% of his pitches in the strike zone this year, up from 44.8 in 2010.

It might also be worth noting that Jimenez has thrown lower percentages of fastballs (61.4 in 2010 and 60.6 in 2011), sliders (15.4 in ’10 and 13.3 in ’11) and curveballs (9.3 in ’10 and 7.8 in ’11) this year. Changeups, on the other hand, have increased. That offering was featured 13.8% of the time a year ago, but is now worked in 18.4% of the time. The slider has been virtually non-existent over Ubaldo’s last three outings.

Know that Indians general manager Chris Antonetti and his front-office team craves statistical information. They have access to all the numbers I just gave you, plus even more detailed data that I can’t just hop online and find. The Indians knew the risk involved when they dealt for Jimenez, but the team also knew the upside of the deal.

This much is clear: Jimenez is not  the same pitcher right now that he was a year ago. All the superlatives in the world can’t hide that reality. That said, Jimenez is still a bonafide star with ace potential. That much can’t be denied, either. The Tribe’s job now is to figure out what has gone wrong and what can be done to fix the problem.

In the meantime, keep your fingers off that panic button.

~JB

9 Comments

Interesting info, but it looks like Haladay’s off-year was confined to one season. The fact that UJ’s second half last year was not good and his season this year hasn’t been good at all is concerning. If there was a health issue, you’d think it might have been fixed in the off-season with rest, rehab, etc. But since it has continued into this season, that’s a bad sign to me.

Also, I’m going to make a generalization with no back-up data other than my head. It always seemed to me that when truly dominant pitchers switch leagues, they have the upper-hand in their matchups against players that aren’t as familiar with their work. That advantage should help them, at least initially. Maybe the proliferation of media, scouting and other data available has rendered that moot, though.

On paper, it looks like Ubaldo (who really needs a nickname, btw) is throwing watermelons. What do you think, having seen all his starts?

Most Latin pitchers are a flash in the pan. No one should ever trade for one, no matter what kind of history they have. Pomeranz is worth more than 5 ubaldos.

If I had to guess, its confidence. Over all these bad outings he still had random dominant ones. Hitters s

(sorry, touch screen phone)

Hitters seemed to figure something out and from his pitch selection changing and claims of control issues. This really makes me think he doubts his stuff. Acta seems like he would get him any help he needed to gain his confidence back, as Acta has done well with that withthe club. It just hurts he has to do it in a come from behind pennat race.

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In his 11 starts prior to July 30, he was dominating.

Hmm… Pomeranz (and to a lesser extent White) had ace potential as well.

I was all for this trade after the fact (what can you do other than be supportive?), but before-hand – and as it was being talked about – it smacked of serious desperation to be competitive in a pennant-race, rather than as a long-term acquisition.

This team had no chance of being competitive through 162 games this year. As for the future, minus a hard throwing left-handed first-rounder, and another first-round draft pick? I’m not too confident any longer…

As Hoynsie said in a Podcast yesterday on Cleveland.com, if Ubaldo doesn’t rebound, those that are responsible should be fired. I HATED this trade from the get go. It seemed that the Front Office wanted to “announce its presence with authority”? If they were going to give up what they did, get a solid player not one that has been suspect.

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